This past week in the NFL, we have seen things that we expected and things that were not so expected. We didn’t expect the Ravens to start the season at 0-2, yet here we are. I, like you, didn’t have the Saints getting off to a 2-0 this season and scoring more points than any team in the league in the past two weeks. But probably the most predictable and unnerving thing happened earlier on in the week and left the Dolphins reeling after only two weeks into the season.
Having suffered multiple injuries behind the best offensive line college money can buy, at the University of Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa has, once again, suffered another concussion on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills. Because this is his third documented concussion in five years, he has to seriously consider if playing in the NFL is worth jeopardizing his long-term health in his life after the NFL.
Tagovialoa has a well-documented injury history and one the Dolphins should have been better prepared to deal with, once the inevitable happened again. While playing for the Crimson Tide Tagovialoa suffered a dislocated hip, a broken wrist, a concussion, and two high ankle sprains. This injury history made him a risk to draft with the fifth pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Yet they chose to make him the fifth highest-paid quarterback per season average when they signed him to a four-year, $212.4 million extension just before the season started. His history alone provided the Dolphins enough warning to be prepared if and when Tagovialoa would need to be placed on the injured list.
The Carolina Panthers have decided to bench Bryce Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton after the Panthers generated only 13 points in their first two weeks of the season. In comparison to their opponents 73 points in the first two weeks. The Panthers anticipated much more production from Young under center with the coaching of new head coach Dave Canales.
Young finished his rookie campaign with a less-than-impressive 59.8% completion percentage. His completion percentage has dropped to 55.4% in the first couple of weeks of this 2024 season. To make matters worse, he has not thrown a touchdown pass this season, yet have thrown three interceptions in two games.
It will be worth watching, to see if the 14-year veteran quarterback can right the ship in Carolina. Although Dalton hasn’t played a complete season since 2017, Canales and the Panthers will be banking on his leadership and experience to turn the tide for them. Though it must be noted that Dalton played 14 games in 2022 for the New Orleans Saints and amassed a 6-8 record, he did finish the season with a 66.7% completion percentage and finish the season a 2:1 touchdown to interception.
Those New Orleans Saints jumped out to an impressive 2-0 record in historical fashion. In their two games, they’ve combined for 91 points, which is the fifth-best scoring output through the first two weeks of an NFL season all-time. Though it’s early, their 6.9 average yards per play this season is nearly two full yards above their 5.1 yards per play average last season.
Last season, Alvin Kamara averaged 3.9 yards per carry to lead the Saints in rushing yards while scoring five touchdowns on 255 total touches in 2023. This season he is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has reached the endzone five times on 42 total touches. There’s no question that Klint Kubiak’s presence has had a significant impact on this offense.
Even though they have faced the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys in their first couple of games this season, Klint Kubiak, use of the outside zone scheme, and the two- and three-man route concepts are reminiscent of Mike Shanahan’s 1990 San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl-winning offense. Gary Kubiak, Klint’s father, learned this offense from the 49ers’ former offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan as a player and coach for the Denver Broncos. This concept obviously rubbed off on the younger Kubiak at the dinner table, and as he and his father worked together for the past couple of years on the Minnesota Vikings staff.
Under the younger Kubiak, Derek Carr is playing better than ever. In two games he has completed 30 of 39 passes. This 79.3% completion percentage has equated to 443 yards passing in two games, five touchdowns, and one interception which is Carr’s best two games span in his 11-year career.
After losing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles last season, the Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell struggled to find an adequate fill-in for the veteran quarterback. This led to the Vikings finishing 1-6 in the final seven games of the season last year.
This led the Vikings to draft Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy in the offseason. However, McCarthy sustained a torn meniscus that would cause him to miss his rookie season. This forced the Vikings to, once again insert a quarterback that wasn’t their initial choice.
Opening the season for the Vikings under center was the maligned Sam Darnold. To this point in his career, the former third overall draft pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold is now on his fourth team. His career was 60.1% completion paired with his 45.9 career QBR.
Under Kevin O’Connell, Darnold, like Carr, has experienced a significant elevation in his game, early on in this season. Though we are looking at a small sample size, Darnold’s numbers are up across the board; his 72.0% completion percentage is ten percentage points higher than it’s ever been, his QBR is 20 points above any year in his career, and he is enjoying the highest quarterback rating he’s ever enjoyed was 92.6, during a season his record was 4-2.
Through two games this season Darnold’s quarterback rating is 111.7, which is a dramatic improvement. Largely because of the confidence O’Connell has shown in him. This is just the most recent example of O’Connell’s mastery of quarterbacks, as he was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay in 2020 and 2021. The Rams broke through to win the Super Bowl in only his second season, as the Rams offensive coordinator.
One can’t talk Super Bowls, without discussing the back-to-back champions Kansas City Chiefs. As champions often do, the Chiefs are now winning games they would’ve lost just a few short seasons ago. If you recall, the Chiefs were the team making costly mistakes at the end of games.
The Chiefs are now winning those games, their opponents should be pulling out. However, due to their collective poise and confidence, the back-to-back champions can win games when their stars don’t play the best. Evidence of this can be found by diving into Patrick Mahomes’ numbers.
Granted we are two games into the new seasons, though trends have to start somewhere. In the first couple of games this season Mahomes has the lowest Pass Success Rate of his career at 47.4%, which is also five points lower than his career average of 52.5%. He also has the least yards gained per games played in his career at 221 yards gained per games played, according to www.profootballreference.com. This is also far below his career average of 294.6 yards gained per play.
By doing a deep dive into Mahomes’ favorite target Travis Kelce, numbers. After being targeted no less than 121 times in the past nine seasons; which is an average of 131.1 targets per season. So far, in two games this season, Kelce has been targeted 3.5 per game. This translates to 59.5 targets this season, and way off his career average. Yet the Chiefs are still 2-0 and they are to be favored in 13 of their 15 remaining games this season.
Going into the week in the NFL, the 2-0 Chiefs travel to play the 1-1 Atlanta Falcons, where the Chiefs are -3.0 against the spread. In one of the league’s top match-ups of the weekend, the aforementioned, 2-0 Vikings will welcome the 2-0 Houston Texans to the Twins Cities. The 2-0 Saints will take on the 1-1 Philadelphia Eagles to continue their record-setting pace.
The 0-2 Panthers will face the 1-1 Raiders in Las Vegas with their new starting quarterback. We will also see the Dolphins, and their backup quarterback, travel as far across the country as one team can travel in this country, to take on the 2-0 Seattle Seahawks. Which of these games are you looking forward to watching this week and is it too early in the season to acknowledge these trends we’re seeing? Additionally, do you think the pace the Saints and Vikings are currently on is sustainable?
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