As the National Football League transitions to a more glorified seven-on-seven passing game, a couple of things remain critical to a team’s ability to win games. Having a team defense that can stop the opposing team from scoring is one of the obvious ways to secure a victory. Long sustained drives and winning the time of possession with an effective running game is another way.
The adage, “Pass the ball to score, run the ball to win,” is still a winning formula. Outside of team wins, another metric for gauging a quality season for a running back varies depending on who you ask. For years, the baseline for a quality season for a running back in the National Football League was gaining 1,000 yards.
Given the increase in the NFL season from 12 to 14 games, and now from 14 to 17 games, it’s clear that the rushing threshold should be adjusted accordingly. According to Statmuse.com, during the 2023 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins (5.1) and the Arizona Cardinals (5.0) led the league in yards per carry. Additionally, 18 other teams averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry. These statistics indicate that raising the threshold is necessary to accurately reflect the evolving nature of the game.
Through week 11 of the NFL 2024 season, 20 teams have averaged 4.0 yards per carry. Notably, the Arizona Cardinals (5.2) and the Philadelphia Eagles (5.2) are the only teams to have rushed over 5.0 yards per carry on average. This trend mirrors the previous year, where 18 teams also averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry. Given these consistent figures, it’s clear that the current standards should be re-evaluated to accurately reflect the performance dynamics of the modern game.
So far this season, among running backs with 100 carries or more, only one has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry. Impressively, the combined record for teams with a running back meeting these criteria and averaging 4.0 yards per carry is 51-27. This statistic supports the need to increase the rushing threshold, given the correlation between effective rushing performance and team success.
Since 2015, seven of the past ten Super Bowl champions averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in their respective championship games, with a combined average of 4.21 yards per carry. Moreover, these champions have maintained an impressive average of 117.4 rushing yards per game in their respective games. This data underscores the critical role of an effective running game in achieving success in the NFL, highlighting its significant contribution to winning championships.
The commonality amongst the best running backs in the game is their average yards per carry. Out of the 24 running backs with 100 carries this season, 22 average over 4.0 yards per carry. The Philadelphia Eagles’ Saquon Barkley and Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry lead the pack with 6.2 and 6.0 yards per carry respectively.
Conversely, only the Pittsburg Steelers Najee Harris (3.9) and the New England Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson (3.7) are the only two running backs with more than 100 carries this season to have a rushing average under 4.0 yards per carry.
Having identified that 70% of Super Bowl champions over the past decade have boasted an effective running game. An average of 4.0 yards per carry should be the benchmark for any top-tier NFL running back, regardless of the number of games played in a season. Consider this: if a running back receives 300 carries in a season, maintaining an average of 4.0 yards per carry would result in 1,200 rushing yards. This is an acceptable standard by anyone’s expectations!
Recognizing the crucial role an effective run game plays in a team’s success, no general manager would be disappointed with the high-level production of a top-tier running back. This kind of performance is not just vital for winning games, but it is also a proven factor in securing Super Bowl victories. Therefore, instead of solely seeking the next Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or Davante Adams, more general managers should prioritize finding the next bell-cow running back who can ease the burden on their highly paid quarterbacks and drive their teams to more success.
Given the analytics highlighting the critical role of an effective running game, it’s clear that premier running backs should average no less than four yards per carry. The data speaks for itself, and it’s hard to imagine how any general manager in the NFL could refute these findings. This level of performance is not just a benchmark but a necessity for success on the gridiron. Do you agree or disagree with the summation of this expectation?
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